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Expected economic consequences of a no-deal Brexit around Europe

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If the UK leaves eurozone without agreement, Bulgaria will lose EUR 111 million a year (EUR 16 per capita).

However, in a case where Theresa May’s government eventually ratifies a deal, Bulgaria’s annual losses will amount to EUR 61 million (EUR 9 per capita), according to research findings from the German Bertelsmann Foundation.

According to it, the UK will lose 57.3 billion euros a year from its national wealth, or nearly 900 euros per capita, under a “hard” Brexit. The EU’s losses in this case will be 40.4 billion euros per year. The other countries most affected by Brexit without agreement are Germany, which will lose 9.5 billion euros a year, and France (7.73 billion euros).

The least affected would be Malta which will lose (EUR 31 million a year) and Cyprus (EUR 42 million). Italy will also be seriously affected and will lose 4 billion euros.

The survey analyzes data on global trade flows that forecast the effects of Brexit. The results for about 300 European regions are also presented. Losses are expressed in gross domestic product per year and per capita and are explained by tariffs and reduced competitiveness in the EU with negative effects on prices and wages.

An agreement with Brexit will greatly mitigate the negative effects, with half the losses in Germany – 5 billion euros a year. In the UK, the loss will be about 32 billion euros, and around the EU – approximately 22 billion euros a year.

Who wins?

According to the survey, some non-European countries can benefit from Brexit. US Gross Domestic Product will grow by about 13 billion euros per year and China by about 5 billion euros. A slight increase is expected in Russia – by EUR 260 million per year.

Economist Dominic Potaut of Bertelsmann Stiftung, who runs the study together with Jordano Mion from Sussex University, notes that Brexit will make trade in Europe more expensive and so trade with the rest of the world will become more attractive.

Losses for regions

According to the analysis, the regions of South England will particularly be severely affected by the “hard” Brexit because of geographical proximity and close trade relations with the continent.

London will be hit hardest by Brexit without a deal – more than 5 billion euros a year. In Germany, the areas around Dsseldorf (650m euros) and Cologne (560m euros) will be the hardest hit.

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