European countries must “ramp up investment in ammunition production” against a military threat from Russia in the event that the US cannot reinforce Europe effectively, according to a report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).
In his piece, Professor Justin Bronk, senior research fellow for airpower and technology in the military sciences at RUSI, argues that NATO members must “force structures against key mission sets to credibly deter Russia from exploiting a clash between the US and China in the late 2020s as an opportunity to break Article 5 in Europe”.
Mr Bronk says while NATO allies have been “understandably preoccupied with the need to support Ukraine”, the number of short-term challenges has “distracted political and public attention away from the rising danger of an even more serious conflict in the coming years”.
“Put simply, Russia has now transitioned its economy onto a war footing; US production is not sufficient to replenish its own stockpiles and fulfil Ukraine’s needs; and European countries are trying to manage an increasingly dangerous situation from an unsustainable peacetime defence and industrial posture,” he writes.
He warns that the US military is “increasingly facing a threat that it cannot overmatch from Chinese forces in the Indo-Pacific” and in the event of a clash between the two nations, “Europe will be left vulnerable to concurrent military aggression by Russia”.
The professor notes Europe, with the exception of Poland, has “failed to make the necessary investments in increased industrial production capacity and defence spending” and this comes at a time when China shows a strong interest in supporting Russia.
“More importantly, the only likely scenario in which Russia might directly attack a European NATO country is during a concurrent standoff or actual conflict that leaves US forces largely fixed in the Indo-Pacific,” he writes.
“In the event of such a military confrontation with China in the mid-to-late 2020s, Russia will have a strong incentive to take a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to break NATO while the US cannot reinforce Europe effectively.”
Mr Bronk goes on to write that to deter this concurrent threat, European countries, including the UK, “must urgently invest in significantly increasing production capacity for the artillery ammunition, spare parts and air defence missiles” required to keep Ukraine in the fight.
It must also refill its own “dangerously depleted stockpiles”.
