A ‘NATO lake’ at Putin’s doorstep

The process of Swedish accession to NATO has been unseemly and laborious, but the final outcome will be all that counts in the minds of NATO leaders and commanders. 

Vladimir Putin claimed he started this war to counter NATO’s expansion to the east. It has had the opposite effect. Two countries that had been proudly non-aligned have now joined the alliance.

Russia’s border with NATO has been doubled. Not exactly a strategic masterstroke by the man in the Kremlin.

But getting here has not been quick or pretty.

Almost two years ago, Sweden, along with Finland, overturned decades of neutrality and applied for NATO membership after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine out of fear for their eastern neighbour.

Turkey first blocked the move, seeking assurances about Sweden offering refuge to Kurdish separatists, but also looking for an arms embargo to be lifted that was imposed when Turkish forces invaded Syria.

Turkey overcame its objections at the end of last month after the US approved the sale of new F-16 fighter jets to help modernise the Turkish air force, though the Biden administration denies the two events are linked.

There then remained more horse-trading to persuade Hungary to do the same. Sweden ended up promising to sell four new Gripen warplanes to Hungary. 

The wrangling and delays may have delayed the historic accession of the two Scandinavian countries, but that will be forgotten now as the Baltic Sea becomes what some observers have called a NATO lake and the alliance is bolstered by many more troops and materiel.

None of this would have happened if Vladimir Putin had not invaded Ukraine.

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