Oscars 2026 predictions: Who will win and who should win?

There’s one Oscar we’re pretty sure of this year, but in many of the big categories the race is wide open. Which is loads more fun.

Here are this year’s predictions for the big categories from me and my partners in arts and entertainment – editor Claire Gregory and reporter Bethany Minelle.

Best actress

Claire: Let’s start with the easiest category to predict this year, the safe seat if you will. Jessie Buckley has been winning all awards season for her role as a grieving mother in Hamnet and it would be a genuine shock if any of the other nominees win – not because they’re not great, but because the momentum is with Buckley, who will also make history as the first Irish star to win the prize.

Bethany: It’s a one-woman race, and that woman is Jessie Buckley. The Irish star brought Shakespeare’s wife to life in Hamnet, inducing tears across the world. Quite simply, there is no other winner here.

Gemma: We know this one is going to Jessie Buckley and she’s a deserving winner, but Rose Byrne’s performance in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You – basically a one-woman show – should also be acknowledged. She plays a mother on the edge as she deals with her ill daughter, absent husband, a flooded home and other disasters, and you feel every gut punch as she tries to keep it together. Can they split the Oscar?

Best actor

Claire: For the second year in a row it feels like early awards season promise for Timothee Chalamet is not going to amount to an Oscar win. The Marty Supreme star may have played table tennis for seven years in preparation for the part, but Michael B Jordan played two different parts as twins in Sinners. At 30, if Chalamet were to win it would make him the second youngest person to ever get the award – which suggests he’s got plenty of time to return for another round on the awards circuit.

Bethany: The best actor race was seen as a two man one, between Chalamet and Jordan. But Jordan’s stand-out performance has been pulled firmly into the spotlightin recent weeks, and I predict the Sinners star will take it.

Gemma: What does Chalamet have to do to win an Oscar? He transformed into Bob Dylan for A Complete Unknown and missed out last year, and now it looks like, after initially being favourite to win, the gold statuette is going to elude him once again. This one is now Jordan’s to lose.

Best supporting actress

Claire: This category feels wide open. Will it be Amy Madigan for her ultra creepy role in Weapons, Teyana Taylor for commanding the screen in One Battle After Another, or British actress Wunmi Mosaku for her Sinners performance, which has brought her the attention she’s arguably deserved for years. All have won elsewhere this awards season, making this a must-watch category on Sunday. As a Brit I’m backing Wunmi – but it’s the prediction I feel least confident on.

Bethany: I’d love Wunmi to take best supporting actress, but I think Hollywood cronyism will out and Amy Madigan will triumph for her chilling performance as Aunt Gladys in Weapons – some 40 years after her first best supporting actress Oscar nomination.

Gemma: My shoulders were so hunched with tension watching Amy Madigan in Weapons that I gave myself a bad back. Not great for me, but testament to what a chilling performance she gives. However, Teyana Taylor edges this one for me – she is so captivating on screen in One Battle After Another that it’s easy to forget she only really features in the first hour.

Best supporting actor

Claire: When I walked out of seeing One Battle After Another I felt sure Sean Penn would get an Oscar for his role as an obsessive, corrupt military officer and I’m even more confident now after his wins at the BAFTAs and Actor Awards. If he does win – and if he turns up, which he didn’t at those ceremonies – then we might just get an acceptance speech which is more than just a list of thank yous. Fingers crossed.

Bethany: Sean Penn said he rediscovered his love of acting playing the deliciously awful Colonel Lockjaw. I think it will bag him his third Oscar too.

Gemma: Sorry to follow the crowd, but this one has to go to Sean Penn. He is incredible as military zealot Colonel Lockjaw, playing the villain so, so well.

Best director

Claire: I feel like this has to be One Battle filmmaker Paul Thomas Anderson’s year. It’s surprising the man behind Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood and Phantom Thread isn’t already in possession of an Oscar and for me this one is even more deserving than his previous works. Don’t expect a long, rambling acceptance speech as PTA doesn’t tend to stick around on stage, though has seemed genuinely moved by the all the appreciation of his work this awards season.

Bethany: PTA is the absolute favourite to take best director, which would reward him for three decades of consistently good movies (Magnolia, Boogie Nights, Liquorice Pizza – the list goes on). If so, it will be his first Oscar win.

Gemma: He’s the favourite to win, but could we see Sinners’ Ryan Coogler edging it? There is a lot of support for him and the film – and with a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations in total, Coogler is definitely doing something right.

Best picture

Claire: I’ve felt so sure this will go to One Battle for months now, but the closer it gets to Oscars Sunday the more I suspect it could be a victory for Sinners. While both would be worthy winners, if I have to pick I’m going to stick with my guns and go with PTA’s action-thriller. Either way I think we’ll leave this awards season satisfied after a well-run race between two brilliant movies – what more could film fans ask for?

Bethany: I think One Battle After Another is going to win one Oscar after another come the handing out of the awards – it’s a shoo-in for best picture. An early signal that I’m right will be if the film takes best editing, with that category frequently mirroring the big winner on the night.

Gemma: One Battle After Another is the best film this year. It deserves to win. However, for pure enjoyment, I want to mention Marty Supreme as well. As long as you don’t mind your movies coming with a big dollop of stress, it’s worth it for the excellent ‘80s soundtrack and a scene involving a bathtub and a big dog alone.