From Mondeo Man to Worcester Woman – at every general election politicians, pollsters and pundits seek to identify the “key target voter” who will deliver victory.

Of course, the reality is more complex.

Clearly, Tony Blair wasn’t elected in 1997 solely thanks to men who drove Ford Mondeos. Not every woman in Worcester voted for Thatcher, then Blair and Cameron. And sometimes there’s a national wave as the country swings from one party to another.

So, is there a key target voter in 2024 that can save Rishi Sunak from defeat or deliver Sir Keir Starmer a majority?

If voters switched uniformly from Conservative to Labour in 2024, with others unchanged, then a swing of 12.7 percentage points would see Labour gain the seats needed to win a majority, 117 of these gains coming directly from the Conservatives.

But there are three key groups of constituencies to consider. Those that cost the Tories their majority, those that see Labour become the largest party and the final set that deliver Labour outright victory.