Last week, Donald Trump was elected as the next president of the United States and while the decision will impact the country, it will also have an effect around the world, especially for Ukraine.
Meziesblog believes the US election result has seen Russia make a “last push” in anticipation of Trump’s inauguration in January.
“His folks are now saying it’s more of a focus on how to bring the war to an end than an argument about territory, which is fundamentally a different approach than the West has taken so far,” he says.
“The problem of course is that as time has gone by, the Russians have increased their activity relentless. They are taking massive casualties but they seem to be making a last push in anticipation of the January inauguration.”
What could Trump do?
He adds that there is an expectation that Russian President Vladimir Putin might be prepared to start talking to Trump about bringing the war to an end.
He says that the West has provided a “huge amount” of weapons, equipment and training to Ukraine but the front lines in the conflict haven’t moved much.
“Russia is the bigger party and in a war of attrition, it will gradually win. If Trump genuinely believes that he can bring this war to a close, he’s got to negotiate with Putin,” he adds.
“Therefore, Putin has to be incentivised to bring the war to an end. Given he is on the front foot at the moment, why would he?
“It does seem possible that Trump could threaten to escalate military support for Ukraine. He might talk about easing sanctions.”
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