Luanda is projected to overtake Lagos as sub-Saharan Africa’s largest city by 2050, according to new demographic forecasts that underline the scale of the region’s coming urban transformation.

Angola’s capital is forecast to grow 78%, from 11.4 million people in 2025 to 20.3 million, while Lagos is expected to grow by more than 25%, from 12.8 million to 16.2 million, according to the projections.

The shift at the top of the urban hierarchy is not the only change on the horizon. Johannesburg is also expected to fall from fifth to eighth position, despite a projected growth from 7.1 million to 8.9 million residents. Bamako and Mogadishu are set to join the top 15, whereas Cape Town and Kano will drop out despite continued growth, illustrating how quickly the region’s urban rankings are being reshaped.

The demographic wave driving these changes is enormous. Overall, sub-Saharan Africa will add 748 million urban residents by 2050, reaching about 1.7 billion, according to the forecasts. The World Bank says the continent’s urbanization can drive growth and jobs, but only if infrastructure, business conditions, and private investment improve — a caveat that places the coming population boom squarely in the hands of policymakers and investors.

For Luanda, the projected rise to the top of the table represents both an opportunity and a test. The Angolan capital’s expected expansion from 11.4 million to 20.3 million people by 2050 would make it the region’s most populous city, overtaking Lagos, whose growth from 12.8 million to 16.2 million — while still substantial at more than 25% — would not be enough to keep pace. The forecasts point to a broader reordering of sub-Saharan Africa’s urban landscape, with fast-growing cities in Mali and Somalia set to enter the top 15 while longer-established centres such as Cape Town and Kano slip out, even as their populations continue to grow.

The World Bank’s assessment adds an economic dimension to the projections, suggesting that the region’s urbanization could be a powerful engine for growth and job creation. But that outcome is conditional: improved infrastructure, better business conditions, and greater private investment are all needed if the coming urban expansion is to translate into prosperity rather than strain. With 748 million new urban residents expected across sub-Saharan Africa by 2050 and the total urban population reaching about 1.7 billion, the stakes for the region’s cities — Luanda and Lagos chief among them — could hardly be higher.