Heathrow Airport has revised its outlook for 2026, projecting fewer passengers and lower profits as continued instability in the Middle East dampens global travel demand and disrupts international aviation.

The airport said the ongoing conflict involving Iran has affected long-haul travel patterns because the region serves as a critical crossroads for flights connecting Europe, Asia and Africa. The uncertainty has prompted airlines and passengers to adjust travel plans, reducing expected traffic through one of the world’s busiest airports.

Heathrow now expects to handle between 80.1 million and 84.5 million passengers this year, down from its earlier forecast of about 85 million. The airport also anticipates that its adjusted core profit will decline compared with both last year and previous projections, citing weaker traffic expectations and higher employment costs.

In a statement, Heathrow said:

“This reflects the risk that continued volatility in the Middle East could dampen broader traffic volumes, with impacts extending beyond the region to global travel demand over the remainder of the year.”

Despite the revised forecast, the airport noted that passenger numbers during the first five months of the year remained slightly above the same period in 2025, partly because more travellers used Heathrow as a connecting hub while operations at other airports in the region were disrupted.

Airport officials warned that the outlook will largely depend on how the geopolitical situation develops, with prolonged instability likely to place additional pressure on international travel and aviation markets during the rest of the year.