We have so much data had over the course of the last few hours as votes have been counted, and what the National Equivalent Vote (NEV) does is give us a sense of public opinion, explains economics and data expert Ed Conway.
The vote share projection shows that Labour’s vote has declined “incredibly sharply” in recent years.
Reform UK has seen a rise, but its vote share is actually “down a bit from the previous set of local elections”.
“But nonetheless, very high indeed by historical standards. And a complete change in the political makeup of the UK,” Ed says.
Translating those numbers into seats into House of Commons seats means Reform UK would potentially win by far the most seats – but fall short of a majority.
Labour, meanwhile, would go from a government with a landslide majority to just 110 seats.
Ed describes this as “a complete shift in the political picture in the UK”.
Green take control of first council of the day – and take mayoralty from Labour
The Green Party has taken control of its first council of this year’s local elections.
Zack Polanski’s party has won control of Norwich City Council from a Labour minority administration.
The Greens needed to net four seats to take control, and won six.
And in another victory for the Greens, the party has won the mayoralty of Lewisham.
Liam Shrivastava received 35,265 votes, while Labour’s Amanda De Ryk came second with 30,374 votes, and Reform UK’s Pete Newman came third with 7,288 votes.
Another Labour MP calls for Starmer to go
Simon Opher, MP for Stroud in Gloucestershire, has joined a growing list of Labour MPs publicly calling for Sir Keir Starmer to quit after a devastating night for the party.
He tells our lead politics presenter Sophy Ridge: “Keir is a decent guy but I just think he’s not the right leader for the next election.
“And if we go into the next election with him, we are going to get slaughtered I think.”
He said he thinks Angela Rayner is a good candidate for PM, as is Andy Burnham – who he said is “certainly the most popular politician in Britain at the moment”.
Three other Labour MPs, Sarah Owen, David Baines and Connor Naismith, have also come out in the past 30 minutes to call for the PM to go.
PM pays tribute to ousted Welsh first minister as ‘formidable and tireless’ – as she loses seat
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has paid tribute to Eluned Morgan after she lost her seat in the Senedd.
The Labour leader described her as a “champion for Wales” who “broke barriers and has never stopped fighting for families in the communities she loves.”
He adds:
“Together, we have worked to lift children out of poverty, cut hospital waiting lists, and create thousands of new jobs. I want to thank Eluned Morgan for the over 30 years of service she has already given to our country and our party. I have no doubt her contribution to Wales will endure.”
The PM has also spoken to Morgan this afternoon, it’s understood.
In Wales, Labour has suffered heavily in Wales, being knocked to third place in the Senedd, from first.
Plaid Cymru is now the biggest party, with 30 seats, up 14, and Reform UK is in second, with 22 seats – all gained this election.
Starmer and Morgan’s party has lost 25 seats, so far.
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