South Africa’s governing African National Congress (ANC) is facing mounting electoral pressure ahead of the November 4, 2026 municipal elections, with declining public support and growing competition from opposition parties threatening its long-standing political dominance.

The elections are expected to reshape the country’s political landscape as voters consider alternatives to the ANC, which has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994.

Opinion polls suggest that the party could receive between 31% and 34% of the vote, representing a substantial decline from the more than 60% it secured in the 2011 local government elections.

The anticipated decline reflects changing voter attitudes, dissatisfaction with political leadership and concerns about the performance of municipalities responsible for delivering essential public services.

The Democratic Alliance (DA), the country’s main opposition party, is attracting some former ANC supporters. However, the political shift is not benefiting the DA alone, as smaller parties, including the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, are also competing for voters.

Opposition Parties Seek to Capitalise on ANC’s Declining Support

The ANC’s electoral difficulties have created opportunities for opposition parties seeking to expand their influence across South Africa.

The DA has been positioning itself as an alternative for voters dissatisfied with the governing party, particularly in urban areas where municipal administration, infrastructure and service delivery remain important campaign issues.

Meanwhile, the EFF continues to appeal to voters through its economic transformation agenda, while the MK party has emerged as another significant competitor, particularly among voters disillusioned with the ANC.

The growing competition suggests that South Africa’s political environment is becoming increasingly fragmented, making it more difficult for any single party to secure outright control of major municipalities.

Coalition Governments Could Determine Control of Major Cities

With opinion polls indicating that several parties may struggle to obtain outright majorities, coalition arrangements are expected to play an important role in determining who governs South Africa’s major urban centres.

Johannesburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane are among the municipalities where political negotiations could become particularly important.

Coalition governments have already presented challenges in South Africa, with disagreements between political partners sometimes resulting in unstable administrations, leadership changes and difficulties implementing municipal policies.

Critics argue that repeated coalition disputes have undermined effective governance and prevented some municipalities from addressing persistent problems involving infrastructure, sanitation, electricity and other essential services.

Nevertheless, political analysts suggest that cooperation between the ANC and DA could provide a route towards greater stability in some major cities, although neither party appears particularly eager to pursue such arrangements.

Municipal Service Delivery Remains a Major Electoral Issue

The elections are taking place amid continuing public concerns about the quality of local government services.

Municipalities are responsible for delivering essential services, including water, sanitation, electricity infrastructure, waste management and local road maintenance.

Poor performance in these areas has contributed to dissatisfaction among residents, increasing pressure on political parties to demonstrate how they intend to improve municipal administration.

For the ANC, the elections represent another important test of its ability to retain public confidence after experiencing significant electoral losses in recent years. The party must also contend with growing competition from opposition organisations that are seeking to turn public dissatisfaction into electoral gains.