MEZIESBLOG

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have dismissed the latest proposals to secure some form of operational pause in the war with Hamas. His stated priority is the destruction of Hamas, and the IDF military ground offensive has been systematically working its way through Gaza.

But does this mark the end for any negotiated break in the conflict?

For any negotiation to be successful, both sides need to see merit or benefit in engaging. Hamas is no match militarily for the IDF, so they will be motivated to find a way to pause or stop the war. It is less clear what motive Israel has to negotiate.

However, the US is clearly concerned about the prospects of further regional escalation, with US secretary of state Antony Blinken on his fifth visit to the region since the 7 October attacks.

The US-brokered deal to pause the fighting appears to have been focused on a two-month pause in fighting, 100 hostages released, and a surge in humanitarian aid into Gaza. That proposal was developed by the Qatari and Egyptian negotiators, before being passed to the Israeli government and on to Hamas.

It appears that in response, Hamas has forwarded a counter-proposal which involves three phases of hostage release: the first would involve the release of women and children; the second the release of the rest of the prisoners; and the third the return of all Israeli bodies. In return, the IDF would release a number of Palestinian prisoners, and also agree to withdraw completely from Gaza.

As with any negotiation, it is very likely that elements of the Hamas proposal would not be acceptable to the Israelis. However, it is not clear whether Mr Netanyahu has dismissed the prospect of a negotiated solution, or whether he would be prepared to consider some form of compromise.

Meanwhile, negotiations appear to be continuing, with reports that Israel would be willing to let Hamas military leader Yahya Sinwar go into exile in exchange for the release of all hostages and an end to the Hamas government in Gaza.

But where does this leave the fate of the remaining Israeli hostages held by Hamas?

On 7 October, Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis and seized 240 hostages. Since then, a pause in the fighting in November last year saw over 100 hostages released, and three were killed accidentally by the IDF in December. Israel claims 32 of the remaining 136 hostages have died in Gaza, and they also believe up to 20 more might also have died. That leaves around 84 hostages potentially still alive in Gaza.

But, Israel seems poised to start phase three of its ground offensive. Phase one was focused on the north of Gaza, phase two on Khan Younis, and phase three looks to be focused on Rafah.

Throughout the ground offensive, over one million Palestinians have been pushed south, and now find themselves squeezed against the Egyptian border. The next phase of the IDF operation will be hugely challenging, with such a high population density making it extremely difficult to differentiate between Hamas fighters, civilians and hostages.

Despite growing calls from Israeli protesters in Tel Aviv that more needs to be done to secure the release of hostages, unless a deal to release the remaining hostages is agreed soon, phase three of the Israeli ground offensive will be under way. The prospects for the hostages in such circumstances would look very bleak.