Retired Air Force Brigadier General Blaine Holt told Newsmax on Friday that Iran is fragmenting into rival factions and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is nearing “extinction,” even as Washington and Tehran scramble to preserve a fragile ceasefire.

Holt spoke hours after U.S. aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar installations in response to an IRGC drone attack on a commercial vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. He suggested Thursday’s ship attack may not have been sanctioned at the top, saying: “We don’t know if Iran officially fired on a ship”.

“They’re in chaos. They have no fewer than four separate regimes right now, one of which is negotiating with us,” Holt said. He described the Iranian civilian negotiators meeting with American counterparts as cornered, noting they know that if they return to Tehran, “they’re going to be facing bullets from the very IRGC that knows there’s only one way off the planet for them”. Holt described the IRGC as “an extinct species” in its “final throes”.

Holt framed the U.S. military response as a clear deterrent: “If you do this type of stuff, we will go after you”. He predicted more strikes ahead, paired with continued diplomacy. He also pointed to street-level unrest, saying that in the last five days, revolts have broken out in Iranian cities as people face shortages of food and water.

The interview came as Vice President JD Vance disclosed a new military deconfliction channel under which IRGC and CENTCOM representatives will be stationed in Doha, Qatar, to manage incidents in real time.