Washington, D.C. – A United States-based political risk consultancy has alleged that President Bola Tinubu is “too desperate” to hold onto power ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, warning that this desperation could threaten the country’s democratic stability.

In a report released on Thursday, October 1, 2026, the firm — which specializes in African political and economic risk analysis — claimed that recent political maneuvers by the ruling party suggest a determination to retain power by any means necessary, rather than a commitment to free and fair electoral competition.

The report pointed to what it described as increasing pressure on opposition figures, judicial interference, and the use of state institutions to disadvantage political rivals as indicators of the administration’s anxiety about the 2027 polls.

“The Tinubu government appears increasingly desperate to remain in power, and this desperation is manifesting in ways that could undermine Nigeria’s democratic credentials,” the report stated. “The political environment is becoming more restrictive, and the space for genuine opposition is narrowing.”

The US firm also raised concerns about the independence of Nigeria’s electoral commission and the judiciary, suggesting that both institutions could come under intensified pressure as the election approaches. It warned that any perception of a rigged process could trigger widespread unrest in a country already grappling with economic hardship and social tensions.

According to the report, the administration’s approach reflects a broader pattern seen across parts of West Africa, where incumbents have increasingly resorted to legal and extra-legal tactics to extend their hold on power.

The consultancy further noted that Tinubu’s health and age could factor into the political calculus, with speculation about succession and internal power struggles within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) adding to the uncertainty.

The report urged international observers and Nigeria’s international partners to pay close attention to developments leading up to the 2027 elections, warning that a flawed process could have significant implications for regional stability.

Nigerian government officials have yet to respond to the report. However, supporters of the president have previously dismissed similar criticisms as foreign interference in the country’s domestic affairs, arguing that Nigeria’s electoral processes are robust and that the Tinubu administration remains committed to democratic principles.

Opposition parties, meanwhile, have seized on the report as validation of their long-standing claims that the ruling party intends to manipulate the electoral process to retain power.

Political analysts in Nigeria note that the 2027 elections are shaping up to be a highly contested affair, with a fragmented opposition and growing public discontent over the cost of living, unemployment, and insecurity. How the government responds to such criticisms, they say, will be closely watched both at home and abroad.