MEZIESBLOG

Israel’s war in Gaza is on borrowed time if Egypt sticks to threat to suspend 1978 deal

Israel’s worst-ever security disaster happened on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s watch on 7 October. He may now preside over one of the most grave diplomatic setbacks in its history.

The Egyptian-Israeli peace deal forged between sworn enemies in 1978 has survived decades of war, intifadas and revolution. But Egypt is threatening now to suspend it over Israel’s offensive in Gaza.

The agreement sealed at Camp David, Maryland, in September 1978 stunned the world.  Egyptian leader Anwar Sadat, whose military had invaded Israel along with other Arab forces only five years earlier, made peace with hardline Israeli prime minister, Menachem Begin.

The agreement has been a pillar of stability in an otherwise turbulent and volatile region ever since.  

The very possibility it could be undermined by the fighting in Gaza is ominous.

What are Egypt’s possible red lines?

Reports differ over the details behind the threat from Egypt’s military dictator Abdel Fattah El Sisi.  

Some claim the Eqyptians have threatened to suspend the peace treaty if Israel occupies the Philadelphi Corridor – the narrow strip of land running the length of Gaza’s border with Egypt – and if Palestinians breach the border and pour into Egypt.

Other reports claim Egypt will carry out its threat simply if Israeli forces take their offensive into Rafah (the area adjoining the border). 

There would be more diplomatic collateral damage from another key Arab nation, too. 

Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia issued a stern warning to Israel not to extend the offensive.  Until 7 October, Saudi Arabia and Israel were inching towards normalising relations.

Egypt’s threat must be taken seriously – it has reasons to be worried

The sincerity of Egypt’s threat will be questioned by sceptics. Egypt benefits from the peace agreement, too.  

It guarantees stability on its northeastern flank and the country benefits economically. Cairo may only be bluffing.

But the spectacle of Gaza’s unprecedented mass suffering is undermining support for the Sisi regime and risks instability in Egypt as in other Arab nations. There is a limit to what the government in Cairo can tolerate.

The risk of the Gaza war bursting its banks and decanting thousands of Palestinians into the Sinai is also a significant one for the Egyptians.  

They have sympathy for their Arab brothers and sisters but know a Palestinian refugee presence in the Sinai could threaten the stability of the country. They suspect some in the Israeli government fantasise about a mass exodus of Gazans into Egypt.

Egypt’s threat should be taken seriously by Israel and Washington. 

The region and much of the rest of the world have had enough of this war.  

The Israeli offensive in Gaza is, it seems, on borrowed time.