Would a different Russian leader be more amenable to peace?

Vladimir Putin is four months into his fifth term as Russian president and shows no signs of leaving his role. 

But when the Kremlin leader eventually chooses a successor, the Institute of the Study of War (ISW) says that person is likely to hold the same views as Mr Putin. 

The institute said in its daily update that Mr Putin’s inner circle and the wider Russian government “have publicly stated their aversion to peace negotiations with Ukraine on terms other than capitulation”.

“Putin’s successor is far more likely to hold such views than to reject them in the absence of significant Russian setbacks,” it said.

“The Kremlin has spent years denying the existence of a Ukrainian nation and delegitimising Ukrainian sovereignty, and this effort has had widespread and likely long-term impacts on Russian society and elite opinion.”

Not only that, but the ISW also said that any negotiated ceasefire “will only benefit Russia and will afford the Kremlin time to further radicalise and militarise Russian society against Ukraine and the Russian military time to rest and reconstitute, likely before conducting a future attack on Ukraine”.


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