United Nations, Oct 21 — Global greenhouse gas emissions remained at record levels in 2025, and Earth is on course to warm by 2.6°C this century even if governments meet their latest climate pledges, according to a UN report released Wednesday.

“Emissions remain at record levels. And national climate plans and current policies fall dangerously short, pointing to 2.6°C to 2.8°C of warming,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as he launched the annual Emissions Gap Report.

World Falling ‘Dangerously Short’ on Climate Action

The report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) exposes the gap between rhetoric and action on global warming, and the challenge facing political leaders at November’s COP31 climate summit.

Even if countries deliver their latest climate pledges in full, global temperatures could still rise 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, the report said. That would blow past the Paris Agreement goal of keeping warming well below 2°C while striving for a safer 1.5°C. Any chance of keeping to 1.5°C had been “lost” due to decades of insufficient climate action, it said.

“The world can no longer avoid overshooting the 1.5 degree limit, and the consequences are already devastating,” Guterres said. “Deadly floods, brutal heatwaves, raging wildfires, lost lives, crippled economies, deepening inequalities, and those least responsible are suffering first and worst.”

Global emissions in 2025 were broadly on a par with record levels in 2024, with the difference between the two years too small to call. Carbon emissions from burning coal, oil and gas — the main driver of climate change — rose slightly in 2025 compared to the previous year. Sticking with current policies alone would see warming hit 2.8°C, the report said.

No Country Immune

Scientists warn that every fraction of a degree above 1.5°C increases extreme weather events and the likelihood of irreversible changes, from dying coral reefs to melting permafrost. The world has already warmed roughly 1.4°C relative to pre-industrial times, and crossing 1.5°C is expected within years.

The G20 accounts for three-quarters of global emissions, but Guterres said “all countries, especially the big emitters, must do more.”

This year’s UNEP outlook is worse than last year’s due to the formal withdrawal of the United States from the Paris accord and upward revisions of historical emissions, said report co-author Anne Olhoff. Emissions growth slowed among the G20, but the US was a “major exception.”

Among the top-six emitters, preliminary data for 2025 showed increases in the US, Indonesia and China, and decreases in India, Russia and the European Union. The US increase of 133 megatons of CO2 equivalent “far exceeded” that of any other country, driven by higher electricity demand and a rebound in coal power generation. The next-largest increase was in Turkey, which hosts the UN climate summit in Antalya from November 9-20.

The US is the world’s second-largest polluter behind China. US President Donald Trump has called climate change a hoax and rolled back clean energy policies while boosting fossil fuel production. UNEP executive secretary Inger Andersen said no country was shielded from climate change, with impacts felt “on every nation on the planet, including the US.”

‘Historic Failure’

The report details a scenario with a 50 percent chance of bringing warming back down to 1.5°C by 2100. That would require warming to peak around 1.8°C by 2050 and vast amounts of carbon dioxide to be removed from the atmosphere — and assumes immediate emissions cuts of six percent per year every year until 2035, far from current projections.

“The main takeaway is simple — governments need to get on with enacting policies that cut fossil fuel use as soon as possible,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.

Some climate-vulnerable developing nations have accused bigger emitters of abandoning the Paris goals, and a showdown over the 1.5°C target is expected at COP31.

“This is a historic failure of political leadership. The science has been clear for decades, but governments have chosen delay over action. The consequences will be measured in lives lost, not just degrees of warming,” said Mohamed Adow, director of the Kenya-based think tank Power Shift Africa.

Guterres acknowledged a climate “leadership gap” but said overshooting 1.5°C “is not surrender.”