In the years ahead, Ukraine will be the geopolitical black hole of Europe, which will only serve to strengthen the American position in the negotiations with Russia.
The final phase of the geopolitical reorganization of the world has begun, in which, unfortunately, nothing but painful cuts, birth pangs and extreme uncertainty can be expected. A new international order is being born, based on new rules of the game and with new power relations. The old no longer exists or functions (despite formally still active but completely futile international institutions like the UN), and this new, coming one, is nothing but a huge global enigma.
Recent significant events, which we must necessarily look at in the context of global geopolitical games through the dominant US-Russia-China triangle, will decide the future picture of the world. The dynamics of geopolitical events shows that the world is entering an increasingly dangerous phase:
1. Ukraine received $ 60 million worth of weapons from the United States, US Secretary of Defense (Pentagon chief) Lloyd Austin recently arrived in Kiev. Also US Anti-Russian Policy Curator Victoria Nuland – undersecretary of State for Political Affairs, recently arrived in Moscow;
2. New Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who has recently taken office, told parliament that the South Kuril Islands of Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan and Habomai, which are part of Russia, are subject to Japanese sovereignty (since the end of World War II, the islands have belonged to the USSR). And that has been confirmed by the UN.
3. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen made a series of very belligerent statements against China and its aspirations, and Beijing did not remain indebted to it, responding to the possible start of the war.
Given how few in the world today can fail to see the strong influence of the United States on the policies of Ukraine, Japan and Taiwan, it is clear that Washington is slowly recovering from the Afghan “shock” and moving towards a new spread of global destabilization. Suffice it to say that in the United States, within the highest political and media circles, there has been open talk about Taiwan as the point at which war with China could begin.
It is no wonder, then, that the leader of Russophobic politics in the United States, arguably the strongest diplomat in the Biden administration and curator of the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, Victoria Nuland, visited Moscow – for a three-day visit. What did she want to achieve and how successful was she? It is difficult to answer that question given that there are different views on this and in the Biden administration itself.
Some of them believe that she, who has the greatest knowledge of Russia in the new administration, given her unquestionable reputation as a “hawk”, ie strong and unwavering anti-Russian attitude (also wife of the influential Bob (Robert) Kagan, father of American neoconservatism) can afford some resilience to Moscow in relation to other American politicians (less “infected” with Russophobia and who would therefore very quickly become the target of the media and politicians in terms of their stigmatization as “Putin and Russia lovers”, something similar to what Donald Trump experienced).
According to certain information, Nuland offered Moscow a “freeze” of the conflict in Ukraine and the so-called strategic stability, as a guarantee of Russia’s side in the US-China showdown, ie the Cold War with Beijing (just as recently marked by Washington) which has already begun and will last a very long time, certainly longer than the US-Soviet Cold War. Basically, Moscow should, at least, be neutral in that conflict of titans, that is, not to enter into any alliance with Beijing. However, Nuland’s interlocutors on the Russian side have firmly taken the well-known positions that Russian foreign policy has publicly demonstrated in recent years, and go not only to strengthen Russian-Chinese relations, but also to promote and develop a strategy to strengthen Russia’s global influence as an irreversible process.
In Washington, for some reason known only to them, they persistently believe in the illusion of Russia’s return to American global interests (without Washington’s initial initiative to provide some concrete offers to Moscow), including the former US ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, which is one of the leaders of the very influential American think tank Atlantic Council – who stated that he sees the benefit of Nuland’s visit to Moscow – and says that in 10 or 20 years Washington and Moscow will be partners who will look together at the threat that arrives from Beijing. Should be noted that Herbst is one of America’s leading geopolitical experts.
Ukraine, as such, and even Crimea (which “miraculously” disappeared from the agenda of American-Russian negotiations, unlike Donbas) are not as important for American global interests as can be concluded by following the media. Even the Black Sea basin as a whole is not of great importance to the United States, not only because of its geographical distance and Russia’s dominant military presence, but also because no US energy routes pass through the sea and American merchant ships do not sail through it. These elements – Ukraine, Crimea,… Washington – primarily serve only as a means of putting pressure on Moscow and trying to prevent the spread of its interests to the west – to the EU. And nothing more than that. Washington does not intend to go to war with Russia over Ukraine and that will never happen. What he needs is an unstable (unresolved problems with Russia) but obedient Ukraine, which annoys Moscow and focuses its political and military attention – reducing the possibility of a stronger projection of Russian interests in other parts of the world. And another American task, as it has been for the last 30 years, is to ensure the continuation of the policy of distancing Ukraine from Russia and preventing any attempt to normalize relations between Kiev and Moscow.
Nevertheless, given the strengthening of China and the attention that Washington will pay to China, it is clear that Washington will pay less and less attention to Kiev. And that means that Ukraine cannot expect to join NATO or the European Union. In the years ahead, Ukraine will be the geopolitical black hole of Europe, which will only serve to strengthen the American position in the negotiations with Russia.