Republicans gathered in Dallas this week to celebrate an economy they insist is booming — but the voters who will decide the midterms in November are feeling something very different.

The Confidence on Display

At the midterm convention at the American Airlines Center, the Republican faithful projected optimism. They pointed to a steady unemployment rate and stock market growth as proof of a new “Golden Age.” Some argued immigration and manufacturing policies were already improving life for ordinary Americans.

“We’ve had record employment in this country,” said Ray Washburne, the Sunoco LP chairman who co-chaired the convention. “We’re having boom times in a market like this, and I think that shows the rest of the country what can be done.”

But a latent anxiety hung over the arena hallways and hotel ballrooms. The reality — that polls suggest voters are deeply anxious about the economy and preparing to punish Republicans in November — has become impossible for even President Donald Trump to ignore.

The Contradictions Piling Up

The economy Trump is selling is a mess of contradictions: growing and stable on paper, but expensive and inequitable in practice. And the data released just this week tells a story that doesn’t match the convention speeches.

Fuel prices are surging despite the end of the summer travel season. Gasoline sits at about $4.30 a gallon on average — the highest ever for September. Diesel costs are at record highs and still climbing.

Inflation is barely budging. Friday’s data showed little progress on inflation last month, a result that investors and economists say will likely push the Federal Reserve to hike rates next week — over Trump’s public objections.

Consumer sentiment is sliding. The University of Michigan survey showed sentiment fell below estimates in September, with consumers expecting prices to keep rising. Just 35% of Republicans believe the government is doing a good job with the economy — the lowest reading since Trump returned to the White House.

Housing costs are biting. The 30-year mortgage rate climbed to a one-year high earlier this week, a sharp reversal from the lows seen before the Iran war.

And major food retailers like Conagra Brands and Campbell’s say they plan to raise prices further.

The $5,000 “Trump Dividend”

Perhaps the clearest admission that something isn’t working came from Trump himself.

Peppered throughout his celebration of second-term accomplishments was a growing, tacit acknowledgment that he needs to do more to reassure voters. He dangled the prospect of a $5,000 “Trump dividend” — a payment he framed as a “reward” for those who suffered during Joe Biden’s presidency.

Pressed on why such a payment was necessary if the economy was thriving, Trump allowed that conditions hadn’t immediately improved upon his taking office. “They had to put up with the four years, and that carried on at least half an additional year,” he said.

The proposal was remarkable in both its scope — the price tag would likely hit at least $1.2 trillion — and as a rare, albeit tacit, recognition that things might not be going perfectly.

Critics paint the president as oblivious, his worldview colored by a curated reality in which dissent has been banished. Former aides say he is cold to briefings that contain bad news, and many of Trump’s closest associates are richer than they’ve ever been.

The Polling Nightmare

The numbers aren’t pretty for Republicans.

A Quinnipiac University survey released Thursday found just 33% of voters approve of how Trump is handling his job. Less than a third approve of his stewardship of the economy. Just 29% were satisfied with his handling of the Iran war, while 28% backed his handling of the spiraling trade dispute with Canada.

It was Trump’s worst standing ever in the poll.

Democrats are now favored to retake the House and have a good shot at the Senate, despite a map that significantly favors Republicans. There are also signs that Latino voters are swinging back to Democrats — a particular headache in Texas, where Senate candidate Ken Paxton is struggling with low favorability ratings.

The Messaging Shift

Republicans know they have a problem. Throughout the convention, speakers took pains to address affordability without running afoul of the president.

Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner talked about cutting housing costs as attendees waved “Housing for Americans” signs — but blamed immigrants who came under the Biden administration. Wisconsin Congressman Derrick Van Orden, one of the vulnerable Republicans this cycle, extolled the need to cut healthcare costs. Speaker Mike Johnson acknowledged the issue but pinned it on “aftershocks from inflation under the prior administration.”

“The very moment Republicans came in, we started working around the clock,” Johnson said, adding that it takes more than 20 months to change course.

Trump himself, long dismissive of “affordability” as a political attack, acknowledged on Wednesday that relief on gas prices was unlikely to appear before the election. He also signaled that some fruits of his economic platform may not be felt while he’s still in office.

“This has been the most successful two years financially and every other way in the history of the presidency,” Trump declared. Then he added: “I want you to remember me in four or five years, when this country’s rocketing — remember, I’m the one that got it started. I’m the one.”

What the Faithful Say

Not everyone at the convention is worried.

“Donald Trump single-handedly is helping our economy, our state government. Things are going good,” said Ed Oberts, a realtor from Alaska. “Things are booming.”

Jutta Normoyle, a Texas Republican, was similarly unconcerned. “Because I know it will get down again,” she said. “So now you have to step back a little bit and afford what you can; later, you can afford more.”

But even some Republican operatives acknowledge the gap between the convention floor and the kitchen table.

“There’s a lot of factors that go into this that are kind of not Republicans’ fault, but I know how voters think, like, ‘What are you doing for me now?’” said Jason Thompson, the RNC committee representative for Georgia. “And I expect President Trump to fix a bunch of this stuff before November rolls around, including the price of gas.”

The Bottom Line

Trump’s “Golden Age” may be real in the stock market and the unemployment statistics. But for voters staring at $4.30 gas, record diesel prices, rising grocery bills, and mortgage rates at a one-year high, the golden age feels a long way off.

The president is asking voters to remember him in four or five years when the country is “rocketing.” The question is whether they’ll give him that chance in November.