MEZIESBLOG

What’s the current state of play? Who is winning in the polls and why? And what are the key moments coming up that could impact polls?

The key polls to watch are those which assess who is in poll position in the seven key swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.

Pollsters predict this election will be decided on the margins, perhaps even by as few as several thousand people in those crucial battlegrounds. 

The picture has shifted significantly from mid July when Donald Trump, just days after the assassination attempt and opposed by an ailing President Biden, was leading in all of those swing states. 

Harris has managed to consolidate traditional Democratic Party voters, resulting in a marked upswing compared to Biden’s numbers. 

If the election was to happen today, based on most of the polling, she would narrowly win the electoral college vote. 

But the major caveats are that those polls generally show Harris leading within a so-called “margin of error”.

And, of course, the election is not today. 

However, we are now in the final two-month sprint to 5 November and this is when most of the country comes alive to the race, the candidates and the issues at play. 

Major events, rallies and unforeseen political events will make it fly by. 

We’ve already seen this election season how pivotal debates can be, with Biden’s face off against Trump being a major factor in forcing the Democrat from the race. 

Harris has never been in the same room as Trump, let alone debated him. That is why their first debate, on 10 September will be so key, especially as it is currently the only one scheduled. 

How will Harris combat what are likely to be attacks on her record on immigration and the economy? Will she be rigorous in highlighting any misinformation from the former president? How will she deal with the pressure of the situation? 

Donald Trump hasn’t managed to identify a particularly potent attack line on Harris yet. Will this change by debate night? 

There is also a debate scheduled for 1 October between the vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and JD Vance. 

Trump was also expected to have to contend with the sentencing in his hush money criminal case – but a judge has postponed it until after the 5 November presidential election.