Speaking from his golf resort in Ireland, the US president suggested Washington could remain in Iran after the war to control its oil reserves — and claimed US revenue from Venezuela has already “paid for the war many times.”

DOONBEG, Ireland — US President Donald Trump suggested on Sunday that the United States could stay in Iran after the war and “keep the oil,” drawing a direct parallel to a sweeping oil deal his administration struck with Venezuela in August.

Speaking at the Irish Open golf championship during a trip to Ireland for meetings and golf, Trump said the US would “ultimately get out” of Iran — unless it decided otherwise. “We’ll ultimately get out (of Iran), unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela,” he said, adding that US revenue from Venezuela has “paid for the war many times”.

The Venezuela Precedent

The comparison is not hypothetical. In August, the Trump administration announced what it called “the biggest oil deal in world history,” securing majority US control of more than 65 billion barrels of proven oil reserves in Venezuela. The deal gave the US 55 per cent effective output of a new private company formed with an unnamed operator, including an ownership stake and rights to buy oil at cost.

Venezuela’s Acting President Delcy Rodríguez said the 25-year bilateral project envisages the development of 17 strategic oilfields with a production target of more than 1.5 million barrels per day, and could generate about $209 billion in revenue for Venezuela based on a benchmark price of $65 per barrel. The agreement grants North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields with proven reserves of approximately 65 billion barrels, with rights to buy 20 per cent of output and a right of first refusal on the remaining 80 per cent.

Rodríguez stressed that Venezuela “retains ownership and sovereignty over its resources,” even as the US secured effective control over a fifth of the country’s vast reserves. The deal followed the US military’s capture of Nicolás Maduro in January and his transfer to New York to face federal drug trafficking charges.

Iran: A Different War, A Similar Playbook

Trump’s comments on Iran echo a strategy he has openly advocated since the war began. In March, he told the Financial Times that his “favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran,” specifically eyeing Kharg Island — the country’s main oil export hub, through which roughly 90 per cent of Iranian crude normally flows. “Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” he said at the time, adding that it would mean US forces would have to be there “for a while”.

The Trump administration deployed approximately 10,000 troops trained for land operations in preparation for a possible takeover of Kharg Island, and by April had deployed 12 ships and 10,000 troops to enforce a naval blockade against Iran. The blockade has severely constrained Iran’s oil exports, with satellite images showing no supertankers loading at Kharg Island for at least two weeks as of early September. Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said the island had been struck 550 times by US-Israeli forces over six months of conflict.

Oil Prices and the War’s End

Trump reiterated that he expected the Iran war to end this year, “possibly just after the midterm elections” in November, and predicted that petrol prices would “drop like a rock” once the conflict ended. He said he would only make the “right deal” and would not do one that was “no good,” adding that Iran was “calling constantly” for peace talks — an assertion Tehran has dismissed in the past.

Oil markets have been roiled by the conflict. Brent crude settled above $104 a barrel on Friday after sharp weekly gains, having soared past $100 for the first time in months as hostilities escalated. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes — drove prices from around $70 to over $110 per barrel by March 2026 before fluctuating back to around $80 in July. Traders expected prices to rise again on Monday after an attack on a Saudi oil pipeline.

Political Timing Under Scrutiny

Trump’s Iran comments come amid intense political pressure ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, which are widely viewed as a key test for the president. His approval ratings have been hit by voter concerns over the war and rising living costs. He has repeatedly linked the war’s conclusion to the electoral calendar, saying in September that “the war is going to end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer”.

The administration has also escalated economic pressure on Moscow. In October, the US Treasury sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil — Russia’s two largest oil companies — and 34 subsidiaries, the first major economic strike against Russia in Trump’s second term. Together, the two firms produce 5 million barrels of oil a day, half of Russia’s total output. Yet the administration simultaneously granted Hungary a one-year exemption from sanctions on Russian oil and gas following a meeting between Trump and Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

What Comes Next

Whether Trump’s “stay and keep the oil” scenario for Iran materialises remains an open question. His remarks suggest a postwar vision in which the US maintains a controlling interest in Iranian oil infrastructure, mirroring the Venezuela arrangement — a prospect that would fundamentally reshape the geopolitics of the Middle East and global energy markets.

For now, the war continues, oil prices remain volatile, and the November midterms loom. Trump’s golf-course diplomacy has offered a glimpse of what a postwar settlement might look like — and it looks a lot like a business deal.