MEZIESBLOG

The UK, US and other western allies will be hoping what appears to be a limited strike by Israel against Iran was sufficiently restrained to avoid triggering an escalatory response.

Israel has yet formally to comment, however, and the exact nature of the military action is unclear.

Ever since Tehran launched an unprecedented barrage of missiles and drones against its arch enemy over the weekend – in response to an Israeli strike against an Iranian consular building in Damascus – the world has been waiting for what would happen next.

A huge effort by American, British and other allied diplomats has been going on behind the scenes and in public to persuade Israeli leaders to “take the win” after Israel and a coalition of countries successfully defeated the vast majority of incoming missiles and drones.

But it was evidence that Israel felt it must strike back to restore a sense of deterrence – even though the red line of a direct attack by Iran on Israeli territory had already been crossed.

So the focus switched to trying to ensure Israel launches only a limited response – rather than something hugely escalatory such as direct strikes by F35 next generation jets against Iranian nuclear sites that Israel believes are part of a covert weapons programme.

As well as the focus on Israel, a lot of work has been done in private by allies to try to reduce the potential for any further response by the Iranian regime, which on Sunday warned that it would strike back even harder should Israel choose to respond to the initial Iranian salvo.

While details are still emerging about what happened overnight, the desire will be that both sides have had the chance to show to their public and to each other that no attack will go unpunished, while avoiding what is already a dangerously high level of escalation erupting into total war.

However, with any military action there comes the risk of miscalculation or mistake triggering unintended consequences that lead to war, which could derail this careful choreography.

This crisis is also raging as Israel is already locked in a war against Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza and engaging in increasingly hostilities with Iran-allied Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It makes the outcome of this combustible situation impossible to predict.