Experts say Islamic State ‘very likely’ carried out concert attack – and reject false flag theories

The Islamic State is very likely responsible for the concert shooting, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.

Both the conduct of the attack and the style of the IS announcement were consistent with their previous attacks, said the US-based thinktank.

Allegations that the attack was a false flag operation are inconsistent with the evidence, it added.

The ISW also said it was “highly unlikely” IS conducted the attack under orders from Kyiv, appearing to refer to Russian claims that the perpetrators had links to Ukraine.

“IS would not falsely claim an attack that may have been conducted by one Christian state against another (or by the Kremlin against Russia’s own people in some sort of false-flag operation), because the implications of IS conducting an attack at the behest of a predominantly Christian country would damage IS credentials within the Salafi-Jihadi community.”

The ISW added that to falsely take responsibility for such a high profile attack would also risk undermining the purpose of IS propaganda – to “fundraise and disseminate its guidance to lower-level commanders and supporters”.

“The conduct of the attack itself is also consistent with previous IS attacks, including the 2015 Paris terror attacks,” said the thinktank.

“The Amaq News Agency announcement is consistent in terms of style, branding, and language with previous Amaq claims for other attacks,” it added.

Two suspects charged and detained for two months

A Moscow court has ordered two suspects in the Crocus City Hall concert attack be held in custody for two months pending trial.

Dalerdzhon Barotovich Mirzoyev, a Tajikistan citizen, “admitted his guilt in full” to shooting at Russian citizens at the venue and setting fire to the building, Moscow city courts published on Telegram.

Saidakrami Murodali Rachabalizoda also “admitted guilt” to a terror charge, according to a post on the Telegram channel which did not provide further details.

The detention periods for both suspects will expire on 22 May, the channel added.

Third concert attack suspect detained

A third suspect has appeared at Basmanny district court in Moscow over the attack on Crocus City Hall, according to the capital’s courts Telegram channel.

The court remanded Shamsidin Fariduni in custody for two months, ending 22 May.

For details on the other two suspects, see our last post).

Fourth suspect detained for two months

A fourth suspect in the concert attack – Muhammadsobir Fayzov – has been charged with terrorism, according to a Moscow court’s Telegram channel.

Basmanny district court has ordered he and three other men be placed in custody for two months, until 22 May, pending trial.

If you’re just joining us, the suspects were dragged into the court yesterday, where there was a heavy police presence.

One of the suspects was led blindfolded into the courtroom, before it was removed and a black eye was visible.