“The big question hanging over tonight is whether Tory MPs will vote against the Rwanda bill or abstain,” says chief political correspondent Jon Craig (Sky News).
He says some MPs are predicting a relatively comfortable win for the government – by 20 or 30 votes.
“But, as you will expect, all the opposition MPs will turn up and vote against, and we still don’t know which way each Tory will go,” Jon continues.
“The pressure being put on them by Number 10 is a real charm offensive, though.
“It started off with bacon rolls at Downing Street this morning, but now there are one-to-one meetings going on, and meetings with groups of backbenchers as well.
“The prime minister has been in parliament pretty much all day since the end of cabinet this morning, talking to MPs.
“The bill is not a motion of confidence, and claims that some Tory MPs would have the whip withdrawn if they rebelled – as has happened in previous clashes – we are told that is not going to happen.”
Jon says there is a lot riding on the vote tonight, given a defeat would seriously hamper the PM’s authority.
“If the government wins tonight, they can breathe a sigh of relief, and they come back in the New Year, ready for the battle to start all over again,” he says.
“But my word, if they lose at 7pm tonight, it will all blow up.”
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