MEZIESBLOG

There are several routes of escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, says former national security adviser Sir Mark Lyall Grant.

He tells Sky News that Israel “probably has the greater incentive to escalate this conflict than the other side”.

It could target Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah; Lebanese civilian infrastructure, as it has done in the past; or launch a ground incursion, he says.

Hezbollah, for its part, could target Israeli civilian infrastructure if it wanted to escalate, he said.

“What we’ve seen in the last three days is a definite escalation.”

He continues: “Certainly the UN system believes that Israel has gone beyond the sort of normal tit-for-tat exchanges that we’ve been used to over the last 12 months.”

Israel’s new war aim of returning displaced residents to its northern border is not achievable while Hezbollah has the capacity to launch rockets into Israel, said Sir Mark.

“So, I think Israel probably has the greater incentive to escalate this conflict than the other side.”

Evacuation messages part of ‘psychological war’

Phone calls and messages sent to people in Lebanon today telling them to evacuate certain areas (see 08.40 post) are a tactic of “psychological war”, the country’s information minister has said.

Ziad Makary said his office in Beirut had received a recorded message telling people to leave the building.

“This comes in the framework of the psychological war implemented by the enemy,” Mr Makary said.

He urged the public “not to give the matter more attention than it deserves”.

Analysis: Major development as evacuation messages spread fear through capital

People across Lebanon have been receiving messages telling them to evacuate areas near buildings that could be storing Hezbollah weapons.

John Sparks, a reporter who is in Beirut, said: “We understand that those calls are now being received all over Beirut: different districts, different parts of the city, north of Beirut as well.

“What’s this about? Well, it’s certainly a warning from the Israelis. It will also spread fear in this city,” he said.

The city is deeper into Lebanese territory than the targets of most Israeli airstrikes today.

Although no attacks in Beirut have been reported yet, “clearly this is a major development”, added Sparks.

He said similar Israeli warnings in Gaza have typically been followed by airstrikes and “sometimes they can happen very quickly”.