Gold steadied as traders weighed prospects for a long-awaited deal to end the US-Iran war that’s rattled global markets and stoked inflation.
Bullion traded just above $4,200 an ounce Friday, paring earlier losses, as Iran’s semi-official news agency Mehr said the US and Iran are negotiating a potential agreement with 14 provisions, include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets and sixty days of negotiations to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues. The deal still needs to be reviewed and finalized by authorities in Tehran, the report said. Oil extended losses while stocks rose.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump said the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader had agreed to a peace deal that could be signed this weekend. The US president described the agreement as “a very strong memorandum of understanding that is a little bit conceptual.” Iran, however, has “not yet reached a conclusion on this matter” and the issue remains under review, the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported, citing Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei.
“After more than 30 similar announcements over the past couple of months, investors have become increasingly cautious about taking such signals at face value,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. “Gold traders appear to be taking the same view: forget what Trump says and focus instead on what the Iranians do.”
Now in its fourth month, the war in the Middle East has disrupted energy flows via the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to spike and increasing the prospects for interest-rate hikes as central banks struggle to tame inflation. The European Central Bank raised rates on Thursday for the first time in almost three years, with President Christine Lagarde warning inflation triggered by the conflict is widening beyond just energy.
“Before the market can look further ahead and refocus on longer-term supportive themes, it needs confidence that the inflation genie is being pushed back into the bottle,” Hansen said. “Until then, the market is likely to remain driven by short-term momentum traders.”
Gold is about a fifth below where it traded before the war began at the end of February. The metal’s recent decline through its 200-day moving average – a widely watched measure of long-term momentum – has triggered additional selling this week, pushing bullion close to $4,000 an ounce on Thursday before it rebounded. It’s still headed for a second consecutive weekly loss.
“We attribute much of the selling pressure to a turning in the technical trend,” Carsten Menke, head of next generation research at Julius Baer Group Ltd., said in a note. The bank lowered its three- to 12-month price target to $4,250 from $4,500 an ounce.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Mercantile Group has announced plans to introduce 24-hour, seven-days-a-week trading for its existing 1-ounce gold futures contract, beginning July 26. The move reflects growing demand for round-the-clock access to commodity markets.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,224.77 an ounce at 9:57 a.m. in London. Silver fell 0.5% to $66.97 an ounce, while platinum and palladium advanced. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.2%.

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