President Donald Trump has said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come within days, but an emerging agreement first reported by The New York Times could reopen one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints while leaving Iran with greater influence over the strategic waterway than it had before the U.S.-Iran war.

Terms of the Proposed Agreement

According to The Times, Iranian and U.S. officials said Iran and Oman are moving toward an agreement that would allow commercial shipping to resume through the strait, though the two sides sharply disagree over what the arrangement would require. Iranian officials said inbound vessels would use a shipping lane along Iran’s coastline while outbound traffic would move through a channel closer to Oman. The arrangement would not include formal tolls but would impose a “service fee” to cover security, environmental protection and staffing, with revenues divided equally between Iran and Oman. Iranian officials told the New York Post the proposed arrangement would be temporary, lasting one to three months while broader negotiations continue over a lasting settlement.

A U.S. official familiar with the negotiations disputed Iran’s account, telling The Times that any temporary shipping routes would not require Iranian permission and would involve no tolls or fees. Oman has described itself as a neutral mediator seeking to preserve freedom of navigation under international law while helping broker an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Trump’s Optimism and Broader Negotiations

Speaking Monday at the White House, Trump suggested a breakthrough could come quickly. “You’ll find out today or tomorrow,” Trump said, according to The Times. “They’re going to go quickly one way or the other. It’s not very complex.” Trump added that the strait could reopen “literally by tomorrow,” saying, “The first phase is the opening of the straits. The second phase will be the denuclearization.”

The Times reported that Iranian officials said the waterway would remain closed until the United States lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports and both sides return to the 14-point Islamabad memorandum that has served as the framework for broader peace negotiations. The emerging Hormuz agreement would give Iran and Oman 60 days to negotiate reopening the waterway while Washington and Tehran resume talks over Iran’s nuclear program, including the future of Tehran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. According to The Times, the United States wants Iran to dilute its highly enriched uranium and ultimately transfer it to the United States or another country for disposal or peaceful nuclear use.

Strategic and Economic Stakes

The Strait of Hormuz carries about one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade, making any prolonged disruption a major concern for global energy markets and the world economy. Any agreement formalizing Iran’s control of the strait would mark a significant strategic victory for Tehran.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly argued that the Strait of Hormuz must return to being an unrestricted international waterway rather than one controlled by Iran. “If we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway, charge a toll and if you don’t pay them blow up your ships, we have created a very dangerous precedent,” Rubio said during a recent meeting of Southeast Asian officials, according to The Times. Rubio also warned that freedom of navigation is a fundamental principle underpinning global trade and should not be compromised.

Pentagon Skepticism and Political Pressure

The Times reported that some Pentagon officials remain skeptical of the emerging arrangement, arguing it could effectively hand Tehran new strategic leverage because commercial vessels may still have to coordinate with Iran while navigating waters threatened by mines and missile attacks.

The talks emerged as President Trump is under mounting pressure to end an unpopular war that has driven up gas prices ahead of midterm elections and drawn down U.S. supplies of some munitions. In recent days, he has again whipsawed between threatening massive strikes and voicing support for diplomatic efforts.

U.S. Officials Express Cautious Optimism

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking to reporters at the State Department, said “there’s been progress made in those talks, but not finality yet. We’re hoping that will happen very shortly.” Rubio has previously ruled out any deal that would give Iran control over the strait, saying last month that it would create a “very dangerous precedent” for other parts of the world.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that “there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict.” Asked whether there would be tolls for movement through the strait, Bessent said: “I think it would be freedom of movement, and even though things are still a little dicey there over the past few days, we saw quite a few ships coming out even now.”

Iran has denied it is negotiating directly with the U.S., saying the talks are only with Oman. The two sides reached an interim agreement in June to reopen the strait and launch 60 days of talks aimed at ending the war and resolving the longstanding dispute over Iran’s nuclear program. That agreement collapsed over escalating hostilities focused on the strait.