De-escalation ‘crucial’, says UK defence secretary

UK defence secretary John Healey says he has spoken with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant about the situation on the northern border.

In a post to X, Mr Healey also said de-escalation in the Middle East was “crucial”.

He said he and Mr Gallant “discussed our shared concern to avoid escalation and wider regional conflict”.

Analysis: Dust has settled after attacks sparked fear of full-scale war – but there’s a caveat

The world woke up today wondering whether the missile exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah were “the start of an all out war” that has been feared for some time – but the “dust has settled” as the day has gone on, says security experts.

Giving his analysis on where we stand now, Bunkall points to the speech from Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in the past hour, in which he said the militant group targeted military sites and avoided civilian areas.

“That suggests Hezbollah’s response this morning was carefully calibrated to avoid a further escalation,” Bunkall says.

He adds: “Just imagine if they had targeted civilian areas and there’d been a large number of civilian deaths or severe damage. I think that would have put Israel in a position where they might have felt compelled to respond very heavily and very quickly. That didn’t happen.”

Bunkall also notes the “positive news” that Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged message via intermediaries saying they don’t want an escalation (see 15.50 post).

“There is another factor in this; we mustn’t forget a third player, if you like – Hamas, particularly Yahya Sinwar in Gaza.

“If Sinwar was looking to Hezbollah to perhaps start a war with Israel, which is something that we believe he wants to happen… well, I think tonight he will probably be slightly disappointed by that.”

However, Bunkall points out that there’s a “heavy caveat” that as long as fighting rages in Gaza, and with a ceasefire looking “unlikely”, Hezbollah has said it will “continue firing rockets into Israel”.

“There is still a working assumption that at some point Israel, if diplomacy doesn’t work… will force the issue, which might mean an invasion of southern Lebanon.”


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