Abiola Yussuff’s analysis of the new political landscape in Nigeria

I decided not to comment on the build-up to Osun governorship election because I knew the PDP would win despite my soft spot for the APC. How did I know?

Truth be told, Adeleke was leading in 2019 with over 5,000 votes before the election was declared inconclusive. At the rerun, the courts agreed that the APC won (and I chose my word advisedly).
If Aregbẹṣọla was working for the victory of the APC then and they still “won” narrowly, how about now?
The incumbent in Osun didn’t help matters with his below average performance.
Religion has never defined Yoruba politics. But a certain Ganduje from Kano came to Osogbo to ask the people to “vote for a Muslim candidate like them” as if Adeleke was less a Muslim because he dances. He forgot that music resonates with the Yoruba irrespective of creed or religion.
Mega rallies don’t really mean anything to anybody in this part of the country because voters are well informed and they know who they are voting for without prompting.
Osun is an “appendage” of Oyo just like Ekiti is an “appendage” of Ondo not in terms of superiority but in terms of political reasoning.
In Yorubaland, Osun and Oyo have the highest Muslim population. If both are now being governed by the PDP which has given the PDP a headstart in next year’s general election, then I have my fears for a Muslim-Muslim ticket.
Tinubu went to Osun (his cradle) to campaign for the incumbent and he still lost by over 27,000 votes. The implication is that the electorate have no regard for Tinubu. It also shows that winning a presidential ticket doesn’t mean he’s popular with the people.
People may be listening to Afenifere after all.
The herdsmen attacks are beginning to define political decisions.
Just like Obasanjo who, though became a head of government thrice (1976-1979; 1999-2003; 2003-2007) but that didn’t make the Yoruba accept him as their leader, winning the presidency does not automatically confer leadership of the Yoruba on anybody. Their leader comes naturally.
Here is the thing. When in 1983, the NPN suddenly “won” in Oyo State (inclusive of Osun then) the people merely said “ọmọ wa ni, ẹ jẹ ó ṣe é” (he’s our child, let him do it). Their child referred to was Dr. Olunloyo and the UPN candidate was Chief Bola Ige (both Christians in a Muslim dominated State). A strong allusion to the fact that religion doesn’t define the Yoruba. You have so many Ibrahims, Kasalis, Nafius, etc who are Christians in this part of the country. So, when a top herdsman came from someone and ran his mouth on the need to vote along religious line, he shot himself in the foot.
Those who think the SW will be a roller coaster for Asiwaju should have a rethink because Atiku won in Ondo State in 2019. The people only voted for Akeredolu because of his efforts at leading the charge for the establishment of Amọ́tẹ́kun. That was when a church hadn’t been attacked in Ọwọ, Ondo State.
Now, straightforwardly, PDP will make a good outing in Ondo, Ekiti, Osun, Oyo and Ogun States. Lagos could be in the realm of “Lord have mercy!’.
I started by saying I have a strong sentiment for the APC but self-deceit is delusional. Truth be told, people are angry with Buhari and the APC for the unbearable hardships he’s heaped on this country, the monumental inefficiency, crass nepotism and the beginning of an introduction of a dangerous religious sentiments are things we don’t need. But I thank God that the Yoruba don’t play to the gallery. Let nobody who’s rooting for the APC be disappointed if the party is thrown to the cleaners at the general elections. Winning a presidential primary is totally different from the general elections. Elections don’t get conducted on social media.
INEC is now beginning to be really independent in the true sense of the word. Electoral shenanigans of the past may be difficult these days moreso when the people are now ready to protect their votes.

May God continue to choose for our nation!