Meziesblog

Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt said on Saturday that Iran’s declarations that the Strait of Hormuz is closed amount to posturing by a collapsing regime, even as commercial vessels continue to transit the waterway under tighter conditions.

His comments on “America Right Now” came after reports that Iranian gunboats fired on tankers in the strait and that Tehran had again declared the waterway closed to traffic in response to a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

Holt said maritime tracking data he was monitoring during the interview showed vessels still moving through the strait, though not at normal volumes.

He attributed the slower pace to insurance concerns and precautions against potential mining, rather than to any effective Iranian blockade.

“Well, I can say that the Pacific Ocean is closed. I could do that from right here in Idaho. But if I don’t have a Navy, if I don’t have the means to close the Pacific Ocean, then I don’t think they’d listen to me for very long,” Holt said, drawing a parallel to Iran’s closure claim.

He characterized Tehran’s announcements as theater aimed at an internal audience, describing a failing regime making moves for the benefit of 90 million potential revolutionaries it was trying to stave off by any means possible.

Holt said the United States had largely prevailed in the conflict and was now in a cleanup phase, with negotiations underway involving an Iranian leadership element not yet publicly known inside the country.

Asked whether the U.S. Navy should escort large tankers through the strait to keep it open, Holt said naval assets were already managing tactical risk, including the threat of undetected mines.

He said Iran would prefer that ships use the northern route in the strait to allow Tehran to collect tolls, but that American forces had effectively blockaded that option.

He also pointed to a factor beyond military operations: Lloyd’s of London, which writes the insurance policies that underpin global shipping.

Holt said the insurer had never blocked shipping for warfare in its 337-year history, a timeline consistent with Lloyd’s origins in Edward Lloyd’s coffeehouse around 1688. He credited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with working to break up what he called a monopoly on maritime insurance.

The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are choking off fuel and fertilizer needed for the next planting season and raising the risk of a new food crisis, with 20% to 30% of global fertilizer flows stalled.

“We’re almost out of planting season time in Africa right now. Those farms feed European grocery stores. So it’s very important, I think, that we’re on it. We’ll get there, doesn’t seem to be a lot of fight left in Iran,” he said.

“And every day that goes by, the IRGC and what’s left of the mullahs turn on each other.”